Let me
apologize right off the bat. I’m going to jump on a pop
culture bandwagon, but I’m doing it to prove a point.
Search trends reflect the interests of our society, and
they can provide an invaluable way to gain intelligence
about what’s on the public’s mind.
First
of all, some facts to consider:
- The most votes ever cast for a presidential candidate
were 54.5 million, for Ronald Reagan in 1984.
- On Wednesday, May 24, 63 million votes were cast in the
final voting episode of American Idol
- All votes for American Idol were cast in a 2 hour
window. Typically polls are open for most elections for
13 hours, not including advance polling.
- In American Idol, there was not one hanging chad.
Obviously, American Idol struck a chord with the public
this year. Some say the final choice of Taylor Hicks was
a surprise, but was it? With the help of
Google Trends,
I did a little forensic investigation and charted the
rise in popularity of the contestants, as captured on
Google. A couple of caveats. Total search volumes are an
approximation, as Google Trends doesn’t show actual
numbers, and currently Google is only showing trends up
to the end of April. But as you’ll see, for the purposes
of this column, that’s enough.
I
divided the contestants into three groups based on
indicated search volumes: the Front Runners, the Also-Rans
and the Basement Dwellers. I’ve included a link to the
chart for each.
The
Front Runners (Link
to Chart)
Taylor
Hicks started the strongest out of the gate, dominating
search volumes in February during the early rounds.
Although he lost ground to Kellie Pickler and Chris
Daughtry in March, he came back strong in April, only
being edged out in total volume for the month by Kellie,
due to a surge in searches the week she was voted off.
Pretty
boy Ace Young was number two in February, but lost steam
moving into March and never seemed to recover. Chris
Daughtry was a slow starter in February, but built steam
through strong performances in March. Unfortunately, he
seemed to lose his edge in April, as search volumes
started to drop from their high in Mid March.
The
sleeper in this group was Katherine McPhee, who slowly
built up steam through late February, March and April,
with a huge peak towards the end of April.
If one
was to predict outcomes based on search trends from
February through April, I would have called it this way
- Taylor Hicks
- Katherine McPhee
- Chris Daughtry
- Kellie Pickler (one has to adjust for the spike on
the week she was voted off)
Remember, this was almost a full month before the final
show.
The
Also-Rans (Link
to Chart)
In the
middle of the Idol pack was a group that just couldn’t
seem to spark the interest of America, despite
significant talent.
Lisa
Tucker started off the strongest of the group, but could
never seem to rise above the search volumes generated
mid February. There was no “buzz” around her. Kevin
Covais, on the other hand, emerged out of nowhere and
did build through February and March. It’s also
interesting to note that when many of the contestants
are voted off, their search volumes dropped off the
Google trend radar. He was voted off March 22nd,
but kept showing up well into April.
Diva
Mandisa started from nowhere, but generated some of the
highest search volumes of all the night she was voted
off. Sometimes you don’t know what you have til it’s
gone. And poor Elliott Yamin didn’t have a chance.
Despite a great voice (maybe the best, if you believe
the judges) he just didn’t turn America’s crank.
Although he built search volume slowly, he never emerged
as a contender.
The
Basement Dwellers (Link
to Chart)
The
three who were certified “buzz”-less were Paris Bennett
(maybe she should change her name to
Hilton),
Bucky Covington and Melissa McGhee.
Paris
started off hot right out of the starting gate in
January, but never went anywhere from there. It seems we
got used to the dynamic vocals, the pixy speaking voice
and the cool hats and ceased to care. Bucky and Melissa
really only attracted significant volumes on the days
they were voted off.
The
point of this exercise is this. Search volumes do mirror
public opinion, and can act as an amazingly accurate
indicator of our collective interests. If you would have
had access to search volume information, you could have
called the results of American Idol long before the
final show.
The
other thing that was interesting was to see the power of
community, both in the search results and the actual
results. When you look at the top locations for
searching, they are, in order: Greensboro, NC,
Charlottesville, VA, Raleigh, NC, Charlotte, NC and
Atlanta, GA.
The
North Carolina contingent was incredibly active in their
quest for information on Chris, Kellie and to a lesser
extent, Bucky, far out-searching the rest of the country
for those individuals. The search demands for Taylor,
Katharine and Ace were spread evenly throughout the
country.
If you
haven’t played with Google Trends yet, give it a spin.
It can provide a fascinating glimpse into search buzz,
and through it, what’s on our collective minds at any
given time, on any given subject.