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SEM’s Seven Year Itch, Part One
January 11, 2007 |
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There’s been a lot of speculation lately about the future of Matt Cutts.
A few of Cutts’ posts and a recent interview have dropped the odd hint
that the world of Google and the world of Mr. Cutts may not always be
one and the same. While this is certainly noteworthy on many levels,
it’s only one symptom of a much bigger issue, and one that will change
the search landscape dramatically.
The fact is, those of us in the search space who have been doing it for
awhile (in my case, dabbling for 11 years, dedicated for 8 now) are
getting tired. We’re becoming burnt out. As exciting as the ride has
been since 2000, we’re beginning to realize that there is a life beyond
search, or at least, the seat that we’re currently sitting in. There are
a number of individual issues emerging that signal a significant change
coming, and the time is now. We are succumbing to our own version of the
7 Year Itch.
A Case of Google-itis
First, let’s look at what will be happening with the engines themselves:
Google was recently recognized
by Fortune as the best place in America
to work. Tales of perks beyond the imagination of most poor working
stiffs emerged from the Mountain View Shangri La. Those of us who have
visited the Google Campus knew about a lot of these, but you could hear
the rest of America’s jaw drop. Oh my God, they said collectively, what
a place to work!
Well, yes…and no. The things that make Google great also make it a meat
grinder. When you sign your life over at Google, you’re entering
yourself in a sprint without a defined finish line, against thousands of
other people determined and capable of getting there first. That’s okay
when you’re young (as everyone at Google is), but at some point, life
edges in on the dream. People get married, people have babies, parent’s
age and require care. Somehow, a $500 subsidy for take out food or on
site dry cleaning can’t make the realities of that life go away. There’s
no rule saying you have to work zillions of hours at Google, but when
everyone else is doing it, especially the two founders, are you the one
that’s going to slow down? Either you keep racing, or you drop out.
There’s little middle ground here.
And My Option is…?
Combine that with the fact that most of Google’s old guard are sitting
on stock options that make them multi millionaires. Matt’s a wonderful
guy and I’d like to count him as one of the friends I’ve made in the
industry, but it’s got to be tough to motivate yourself everyday to put
in the hours it takes to be Matt Cutts when there’s the substantial
carrot of a very early and very lush retirement constantly hanging just
above your head.
Matt’s not alone. That’s why one third of the first 300 employees are no
longer with Google. A
story in the Houston Chronicle relates how 16
Google insiders cashed in more that $3.7 billion in stock last year
(half of this coming from Larry and Sergey themselves), filling
California’s tax coffers. And there’s more to come. By 2008, the state
is counting on a cumulative $1 billion in state income tax from the sale
of Google stock as the early guard cashes in. That’s represents 1% of
the state’s entire annual general fund budget.
Changing of the Guard
Somehow, staying in the race becomes less compelling when the
alternative is so damned attractive. It’s a testament to Google’s
culture that more haven’t taken Door Number Two yet. But as the old
guard moves on, that culture is shifting. Again, this is not unique to
Google. Start ups everywhere go through this, but few have been as
successful or watched as closely as Google. A San Francisco Chronicle
article looked at the shift of Google from a highly democratic family to
a more conservative bureaucracy: “The feeling of ownership among
employees, a natural when a company has 100 workers, was nearly
impossible to maintain after the workforce grew into the thousands.”
Google’s not alone in this. Just a few weeks ago, I wrote about
Tim
Converse’s departure from Yahoo. Yahoo has seen several move on, some
voluntarily, some not, due to a series of reorgs. Yahoo is a perfect
case study of the tempestuous nature of the Web. Once sitting on the top
of the search heap, Yahoo has felt a series of very painful bumps on the
way down. It is now reinventing itself so it can turn around its market
share slide. Yahoo is a curious mix of old guard and new saviors as it’s
culture becomes redefined, for different but no less effective reasons
than Google.
And finally, there’s Microsoft, unique amongst the three. Being late
into the search game might actually benefit the monolithic giant here.
Most of the recently assembled search team still feel the motivation
that comes from the promise of a new endeavor. Microsoft is in the
unaccustomed position of being the start up, the new kid on the block.
Their legs are still fresh.
Today, I looked at the effect of the 7 Year Itch on the engines, but the
impact is also affecting hundreds of search marketing companies. Stay
tuned next week! |
Gord Hotchkiss
President and CEO
Enquiro Full Service Search Engine Marketing
Search Engine Positioning by Searchengineposition
Blog: www.outofmygord.com
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