|
IF YOU WERE GOOGLE, YOU had access
to $4 billion in cash, and you were taking on Microsoft on their home
turf, what would you do?
That was the question I posed to you two weeks ago. Thanks to the many
who replied. After sorting through the self-serving e-mails from various
CEO's suggesting that Google should buy their companies, there were some
very interesting strategies put forth. Let's see if they're listening in
Mountain View.
First of all, many of you zeroed in on the operating system as the core
of Google's strategy. Jim Barkow offers up GoOSe..the Google OS: "At the
core to their (Google's) search platform is a very quick file system
that was first developed when they couldn't find one in the market
(Linux, MS, etc.) that was fast enough. Interesting that after a long
promise, Microsoft supposedly abandoned their plans to 'upgrade' their
file system for Longhorn and Vista."
Ironically, on the same day the original column ran, Brooke Dixon
pointed me to a post on
Gizmodo showing a screen shot of a bare bones
Google OS based on GNU/Linux. It would come in three versions:
corporate, embedded, and portable. It would allow users to boot and use
a stripped-down OS that does what Google does best--manage files.
LionVision joined the chorus with Glinux (or Googlix), offered for a
pretty compelling price point. "So Google could GIVE AWAY FOR FREE an OS
as well-groomed and clean as apple OSX with all the new cutting edge
apps integrated at the OS level. IM and VOIP and Email and Search
working from the very roots."
The Kelsey Group's own VSG (Very Smart Guy), Greg Sterling,
pointed me
to a post by Robert Young titled "Google, the Ultimate Deflator" that
follows the same reasoning--making the Microsoft OS superfluous by
migrating users to an integrated set of Web apps.
Hmmm...an Internet appliance that relies on the computing horsepower of
a Web server to do the heavy lifting?
That sounds familiar.
As many pointed out, several have been down this path before, including
Oracle's Larry Ellison and Sun Microsystems. In fact, if memory serves,
Microsoft has also been down the road, and put several million into Web
appliances and Web-based application service provider technology.
Perhaps with broadband proliferation, the idea's time has finally come.
If this is the case, expect to see some of that $4 billion spent
acquiring technology that could create a suite of online apps that would
form the foundation of Google's total solution. Simon Collins suggested
likely targets could be contact minders like Plaxo or Linked In, then
possibly extending to online data storage, giving users the alternative
of a virtual desktop.
Both Nikos Pharmakidis and Andre Morgantetti suggested that Google
should take the logical next step down this road and bundle a
stripped-down OS and a computer and sell it at a rock bottom price. It's
the cell phone approach to market control. Give away the hardware and
make your margins on monthly service fees.
The problem with Google going head to head with Microsoft for the OS is
that you're attacking the Giant right where he lives, so expect a long
and heated battle. Others have tried for many years now--and at last
count, Apple and Linux combined have managed to capture less than 10
percent of the OS market share. If I was Google and this was my
strategy, I wouldn't be thrilled with my odds. It's also heavily
dependent on users adopting a new way of doing things, so there's a
king-sized chasm to cross.
By the way, speaking of Apple, a few thought Steve Jobs, Larry Page, and
Sergei Brin would make an interesting threesome. John Nesbit offered
this bold prediction: "Google uses their cash to buy Apple--they are
culturally similar in their approach to problems--and then with the new
Intel chips that run the Apple OS due out next year they launch a new OS
called 'GO'--Google Operating System"."
Other readers suggested that rather than attacking Microsoft where
they're dominant, you hit where they're not the 800-pound gorilla. For
example, mobile computing. Shaun Abrahamson says: "Mobile is probably
one area where Uncle Bill is not dominant and this might be the place to
take the fight, for the next gen of much more dependent users who have
devices with them all the time."
John Reilly sees Google's battleground shaping up in super MP3 players.
"Think of it this way. If you're an iPod user, wouldn't adding wireless
search, social networking, and other communication functionality be
spectacular?
And for Google (and its advertisers), what better way to bring ads and
awareness to an already engaged audience?"
Toren Ajk agrees: "We have just begun to tap into the power of devices
such as cell phones, MP3 players, game consoles, Tivos, etc. These are
no longer business-originated activities (the area Microsoft has chosen
to dominate). Entertainment is the primary function of these devices, be
it active communication or passive absorption. This is a fundamental
shift which makes access the key choke point. These devices don't need
to run through Windows in order to deliver their value, entertainment,
to the end user."
And, as Toren points out, if access is the new choke point, then other
recent Google acquisitions may hold the key to their strategy. Pete
Neumann warns: "What should be keeping us all awake at night is the fact
that Google is buying up the secondary choke points--the onramps to the
Internet: dark fiber, wireless networks, broadband over powerline (ConCurrent)."
Roy Moskowitz envisions a low-cost wireless broadband service, bundled
with a Google-branded browser. "$1.00 a day and $10 a month for the
privilege of being served ads on the Google browser when we connect
sounds about right for the service. In contrast, T-mobile charges
Starbucks customers $10 for an hour that must be used the same day."
A few mentioned Google's interest in NeoMedia as a clue. Their
Paperclick technology uses handheld devices to link the world around you
to the online world. Capture a barcode or quickly enter a word you see
on a product box, billboard, or in-store display, and you're suddenly
linked to a Web site where you can purchase, register, get a rebate or
watch a product demonstration.
Jim Barkow, who has friends deeply embedded in Google's Mountain View
brain trust, offers this advice: "Google has an army of the most
talented, dedicated, and focused engineers around--and have spent the
last few years making sure it was that way. Without a doubt, what
they've launched so far is not the real goods of what they've been
working on for the past two years."
When it's all said and done, perhaps Terry Weakly should have the last
word. "Cash it in and go home...to a really nice home! Let someone else
slug it out with Microsoft."
I'm sure you'd have some takers in the Googleplex Terry, but getting the
approval of Google shareholders might be an issue. |